Trevor Lawrence vs Tyler Shough: Who Should You Start?

Week 4 analysis

AstroLineup recommends starting Tyler Shough over Trevor Lawrence. Here's how the two compare on AstroScore, matchup, projected points, and expert consensus rank.

TL
Trevor Lawrence
QB · JAX
vs
TS
Tyler Shough
QB · NO
Verdict · Week 4
▲ Start Shough
45
AstroScore
75
19.0
Projected Points
19.1
#4
ECR Rank
#10
@ CIN ★★★★★
Matchup
vs ATL ★★★★★
★ Why start Shough over Lawrence?
→Shough projects 19.1 vs Lawrence's 19 — Shough edges Lawrence by 0.1 projected points while playing at home against an average defense
→Lawrence ranks #4 vs Shough's #10 — Expert consensus favors Lawrence, but Shough's strong cosmic week at 75/100 could narrow the gap against Lawrence's neutral conditions at 45/100
→Shough's chart favors him — Shough's week points to composed, explosive play, while Lawrence faces restriction likely to limit his opportunities and ceiling.
Lawrence’s stars45 · Neutral
Boosts and drags roughly cancel out, so trust his 19-point projection
SaturnStructure & limits▼ Strong drag
Saturn tightens the structure around Lawrence this week, limiting how much he can create on his own. Expect fewer dropbacks to click, reduced completion efficiency, and a capped ceiling on passing production.
JupiterLuck & opportunity▲ Moderate boost
Jupiter opens small windows of opportunity that could pay off downfield. Expect a slightly better chance at a long completion or touchdown pass despite the overall restriction.
Overall
Saturn's restriction outweighs Jupiter's boost, pointing to a limited floor and a modest ceiling, with low upside unless an occasional lucky break breaks through.
Shough’s stars75 · Strong
Good bet to beat his 19.1-point projection, with big-game upside
MarsDrive & physicality▲ Moderate boost
Mars sharpens his willingness to push the ball downfield and stand firm against pressure. Expect more deep attempts, tighter pocket decisions, and a higher chance of explosive completions.
MoonMood & rhythm▲ Moderate boost
The Moon keeps his mood steady and his timing consistent through the game. Expect fewer rattled sequences, cleaner decision-making under pressure, and a steadier floor with reduced turnover risk.
More Week 4 Comparisons
TS
Tyler Shough
QB · NO
75
VS
JB
Joe Burrow
QB · CIN
60
JB
Joe Burrow
QB · CIN
60
VS
JA
Josh Allen
QB · BUF
80
JA
Josh Allen
QB · BUF
80
VS
PM
Patrick Mahomes
QB · KC
30
BP
Brock Purdy
QB · SF
50
VS
PM
Patrick Mahomes
QB · KC
30
JB
Joe Burrow
QB · CIN
60
VS
BP
Brock Purdy
QB · SF
50
KM
Kyler Murray
QB · MIN
55
VS
PM
Patrick Mahomes
QB · KC
30